The Ukrainian Invasion of Russia Is a Game-Changer

The Kursk offensive’s success will strengthen Ukraine’s hand in any future negotiations with the Kremlin.

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A Ukrainian serviceman operates a tank near the Russian border in Sumy Region, Ukraine, August 15, 2024.

Viacheslav Ratynskyi/Reuters

Prepared in total secrecy, Ukraine’s offensive into Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions has taken the Kremlin and official Washington by surprise. Ukrainian sources indicate the attack was launched without consultation with the U.S. and other allies, making it an important reminder that Ukraine is a sovereign state capable of making its own strategic and tactical decisions in the all-out war.

Now well into its second week, the offensive has marched twelve miles into Russian territory bordering northeastern Ukraine. According to General Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander in chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, the Ukrainians now control some 600 square miles of territory and over 70 towns and settlements in mainly rural regions inside Russia. Russia itself has announced plans for the evacuation of nearly 200,000 citizens in the region. Social-media platforms are replete with photos and videos of hundreds of Russian prisoners of war, including over 100 taken on August 13.

AK

About the Author

Adrian Karatnycky

Adrian Karatnycky is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and the former president of Freedom House. His history Battleground Ukraine: From Independence to the War with Russia was recently published by Yale University Press.

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