Ireland’s Falling Birth Rate Threatens Its Demographic and Economic Future

It’s quaint to think about now, but in 1954, American Catholic journalist John A. O’Brien commissioned a collection of essays by important Irish writers — Seán Ó Faoláin, John D. Sheridan, and others — called The Vanishing Irish. It was about what they perceived as a baffling trend, the startling low fertility of Ireland, then at 3.4 children a woman. Ireland currently has a fertility rate hovering around 1.4 children per woman.

Ireland’s own Department of Finance commissioned a report in 2025 called the Future Forty report featuring demographic projections. Because of immigration and population momentum, Ireland’s total population looks set to increase from 5.5 million to nearly 8 million by 2065. This would represent a return to the pre-famine population level or above it. Ireland’s 19th-century famine and the giant waves of emigration have meant that Ireland is the only country on earth to currently have a lower population now than it did in 1830.

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Michael Brendan Dougherty

Michael Brendan Dougherty is a senior writer at National Review Online.

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It’s quaint to think about now, but in 1954, American Catholic journalist John A. O’Brien commissioned a collection of essays by important Irish writers — Seán Ó Faoláin, John D. Sheridan, and others — called The Vanishing Irish. It was about what they perceived as a baffling trend, the startling low fertility of Ireland, then at 3.4 children a woman. Ireland currently has a fertility rate hovering around 1.4 children per woman.

Ireland’s own Department of Finance commissioned a report in 2025 called the Future Forty report featuring demographic projections. Because of immigration and population momentum, Ireland’s total population looks set to increase from 5.5 million to nearly 8 million by 2065. This would represent a return to the pre-famine population level or above it. Ireland’s 19th-century famine and the giant waves of emigration have meant that Ireland is the only country on earth to currently have a lower population now than it did in 1830.