Florida Not a Swing State Now

Florida is the alligator that hasn’t barked. In years past, the June of an election year would have yielded a thousand think pieces on the swing state that once defined swing states. To mark the occasion, the clichés would have come out in force: “the biggest prize,” “the tightest of margins,” “the hottest of contests,” “the narrowest of divisions,” “as Florida goes, so goes the nation.”

For a century, this was true. Only in 1928, 1960, and 1992 did Floridians vote for a different presidential candidate than the U.S. at large. But, since 2020, when that happened again, something has felt different in the Sunshine State, and the tone of the coverage has shifted accordingly. It is, of course, true that most political analysts believe that the 2022 midterms will be a “red wave.” It is not true, however, that those analysts consider Republicans to be shoo-ins in every state. Pennsylvania’s statewide contests remain a toss-up. Nevada’s remain a toss-up. So, too, do Georgia’s and New Hampshire’s and Ohio’s and Arizona’s and Wisconsin’s. But Florida’s? Nobody is talking much about Florida’s. That Marco Rubio is going to beat Val Demings is assumed, and with Ron DeSantis, the buzz is all about 2024.

About the Author

Charles C. W. Cooke

Charles C. W. Cooke is a senior editor at National Review and the host of The Charles C. W. Cooke Podcast.

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Florida is the alligator that hasn’t barked. In years past, the June of an election year would have yielded a thousand think pieces on the swing state that once defined swing states. To mark the occasion, the clichés would have come out in force: “the biggest prize,” “the tightest of margins,” “the hottest of contests,” “the narrowest of divisions,” “as Florida goes, so goes the nation.”

For a century, this was true. Only in 1928, 1960, and 1992 did Floridians vote for a different presidential candidate than the U.S. at large. But, since 2020, when that happened again, something has felt different in the Sunshine State, and the tone of the coverage has shifted accordingly. It is, of course, true that most political analysts believe that the 2022 midterms will be a “red wave.” It is not true, however, that those analysts consider Republicans to be shoo-ins in every state. Pennsylvania’s statewide contests remain a toss-up. Nevada’s remain a toss-up. So, too, do Georgia’s and New Hampshire’s and Ohio’s and Arizona’s and Wisconsin’s. But Florida’s? Nobody is talking much about Florida’s. That Marco Rubio is going to beat Val Demings is assumed, and with Ron DeSantis, the buzz is all about 2024.