Strategic uncertainty is a wild card in a nation’s plans because it is dominant in world affairs. A weak nation can become powerful in a few decades. An apparently strong one can collapse in a few years. Think of the global strategic environment as a lake of black swans. The U.S. is swimming in this lake today and antecedents within memory—relatively recent history— illustrate the supreme importance of grasping the unchangeable.
This week marks the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Britain, the largest extended air engagement in human history. Fought over nearly four months between July and October 1940, the battle pitted the Nazi Luftwaffe, hoping to gain air superiority and thereby enable a naval invasion, against the Royal Air Force defending British airspace. Cinema and fiction have immortalized the conflict’s tactical actions. As one would expect, few aspects of modern conflict capture the imagination like air combat, with hostile aviators and their flying machines engaged in a deadly ethereal dance.
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