If you spoke to any plugged-in Republican in the closing weeks of the Virginia governor’s race, you would hear something along the lines of: Glenn Youngkin is positioned to win, unless Donald Trump shows up and throws a monkey wrench into things. Terry McAuliffe, on the other hand, was so desperate for Trump to plop down in Virginia and start rambling about the stolen election that when a Trump visit didn’t happen, McAuliffe lied and pretended it did anyway.
In the end, Trump largely stayed out of the race. And though Virginia turned deep blue in the Trump era and voted for Biden by ten points last year, Youngkin won impressively. What’s significant is that he did it not only by winning back suburban voters, but also by smashing Trump’s margin in rural areas that represented Trump’s base. Simply put, without Trump on the ballot or in office, the Republican candidate did significantly better.
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