We’re a Long Way from October 6

Israel is now the military hegemon in the region, and Hamas is a shadow of its former self.

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Israeli tanks move near the Gaza border, October 12, 2023.

Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu via Getty Images

It took the Israelis days to fully clear the Gaza envelope of the Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters, as well as the Palestinian civilians who joined in the bloody bacchanal on October 7, 2023. Even before the area had been pacified, and as a long war loomed on the horizon, Israeli officials resolved to destroy Hamas once and for all.

If the cease-fire agreement that appears set to enter effect this weekend encounters no snags along the way, the Israelis will fall somewhat short of that goal. It would be ahistorical to assume that the agreement Donald Trump secured with the region’s relevant parties is destined to progress beyond the initial stages. Nor should we assume that Hamas is going to willingly surrender its role as the preeminent political and military force in Gaza to a technocratic body of experts overseen by a Trump-led “board of peace.”

Noah Rothman

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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