As Richard Nadler writes, when the Republican party assesses the 2008 election, it needs to take a close look at the Hispanic vote. There is no disagreement that we can and must do a better job of reaching Hispanic voters.

There is a disagreement, however, between those who believe support for “comprehensive” immigration reform should be a part of these efforts, and those who believe that such support would both constitute a dramatic departure from conservative principles and be unnecessary to woo Hispanic votes. The following Q&A is based on CNN exit-poll data and Pew Hispanic Center 2008 voter surveys, as well as on the pioneering demographic studies of immigrant voting patterns by Prof. James Gimpel:

1. Was there a major shift among Hispanic voters toward the Democrats in 2008?

No. According to the Pew Hispanic Center report on the 2008 election, the 67 percent of Hispanic votes that went to Barack Obama was within the norm for presidential elections since 1988. Bill Clinton got 72 percent in 1996, and Al Gore got 62 percent in 2000. While Bush got 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004 (not 44 percent as widely believed), he got only 35 percent in 2000, and Robert Dole received only 21 percent in 1996. The average Hispanic vote for Republican congressional candidates over this period, which is a better indicator of party affiliation and loyalty, has remained relatively constant at around 30 percent.

2. Was the large Hispanic vote for Obama a reversal of Republican gains of recent years?

No, not unless you focus only on the 2004 presidential election, in which Republicans did unusually well among Hispanics, and ignore the broader trends of the past 20 years. Even if you do that, the decline in the Republican share of the Hispanic vote in 2008 was less significant politically and electorally than McCain’s loss of support in other demographic groups — such as among voters age 18-29, Catholics, evangelical Christians, and women of all ages. Obama even got 20 percent of the vote among self-identified conservatives, compared to John Kerry’s 8 percent in 2004.

3. Was the immigration-reform issue the main factor in Hispanics’ supporting Obama in 2008?

No, and the evidence suggests exactly the opposite may be the case. A poll of likely voters in July 2008 sponsored by Univision showed that only 11 percent of Hispanic voters considered immigration to be the most important issue of the election, compared to 54 percent who chose jobs. A November exit poll conducted for CNN showed that Hispanic voters ranked immigration seventh in importance among all issues. A July survey by the Pew Hispanic Center showed Obama’s margin of support over McCain on the immigration issue — 59 percent to 19 percent — was nearly identical to the margin on other issues: health care (64 percent to 19 percent), education (66 percent to 18 percent), and jobs (65 percent to 19 percent).

This was true in 2004 — the year when Bush won a particularly large share of the Hispanic vote — as well. The Bush-Cheney campaign did not spend one dollar on Spanish-language advertising emphasizing the immigration issue. The Bush-Cheney ads were on solid conservative themes — entrepreneurship, educational empowerment, national defense, and family values.

4. What about trends in Hispanic party orientation and party registration?

The unpleasant reality — for Republicans — is that new Hispanic voters have been registering predominantly Democratic for decades. What changed in 2008 was the increase in registration and turnout, not party preference. Republican party registration among Hispanic voters is now 16 percent nationally, compared to 51 percent Democrat.

An important qualification: Country of origin strongly affects voting behavior. Hispanic citizens who were born in Cuba are almost twice as likely to be registered Republican as those born in Mexico. It is undeniable that current immigration patterns (both legal and illegal) tilt the playing field toward the Democrats.

5. Take the swing state of Colorado as an example. Did the higher Hispanic turnout cost John McCain nine Electoral College votes there?

The numbers say no. In Colorado, John McCain actually received a higher percentage of Hispanic votes than George Bush did in 2004 — 38 percent vs. 31 percent. Yet McCain’s gains among Hispanic voters did not offset his large losses among other groups. Compared to Bush in 2004, McCain suffered a 9 percent decline in support among non-Hispanic whites, which cost him six times as many votes as he gained among Hispanics.

6. Do the voting patterns of newly naturalized Hispanic voters differ significantly from the voting patterns of other immigrants who become citizens?

Yes, mainly because the lower education levels and job skills of recent Hispanic immigrants are predictors of Democratic orientation. Granting amnesty and a path to citizenship to millions of predominantly low-skilled individuals who can work only at low-wage jobs will translate into far more new Democratic party registrations than Republican ones — by more than a two-to-one ratio.

The idea that new-immigrant voters will suddenly alter this historic pattern and register Republican as a result of some bipartisan amnesty is a myth perpetrated by open-borders advocacy groups. Democrats understand this math very well. The irony is that when it comes to immigration policy, Republicans have become the “party of hope” — the hope that the trends of the last 30 years will not be reflected in tomorrow’s party-registration numbers.

The main lesson we can draw from all this is that the Republican party should stop trying to design an “appeal to Hispanics,” and instead appeal to Hispanic citizens on the same broad range of issues that are important to all Americans. In a January 2009 survey of Colorado voters on possible match-ups in the 2010 U.S. Senate race, I received 35 percent of Hispanic votes against incumbent Senator Bennett, not much different than my support among non-Hispanics and within the margin of error of McCain’s 38 percent. This strongly suggests that Republicans have a base of 35 percent to 38 percent among Hispanics, a solid base from which to build.

Like all Americans, Hispanic citizens are interested in the prosperity, security, and well-being of their families. Republicans need to build a better platform on those issues, a platform that appeals to all Americans of every ethnic background.

Pandering to the amnesty lobby is not only suicidal for the Republican party in terms of the predictable party registration patterns of low-income immigrant voters, it is a distraction and a detour from the hard work of winning support on the issues that count most among Hispanic citizens. The good news is that those happen to be the same issues that count most for all Americans.

Tom Tancredo

Chairman, the Rocky Mountain Foundation