Why Conservative Nonwhites Vote Democratic

Explaining away the GOP’s poor showing with nonwhite voters has become something of an art for Republicans. The mantras employed in such discussions tend to have a “next year in Jerusalem” quality — nonwhite voting blocs are always on the verge of realizing that their true home is in the GOP. “More and more Hispanics realize our conservative values of faith, family & freedom align with GOP,” Texas Republican Mayra Flores tweeted, one month before being trounced by a Democrat in her heavily Hispanic congressional district. “Latinos have always been conservative in their hearts,” Carmen Maria Montiel declared at last year’s CPAC. “I believe Democrats duped the Latinos into believing they were the party for us.”

If that’s true, the dupery has a long half-life. Over the course of the last half-century, the share of the Latino vote won by Republican presidential candidates has fluctuated between 20 and 40 percent. Recent talk of a Republican “realignment” has reinvigorated conservative hopes that paradigm-shifting inroads with the growing Hispanic voting bloc are right around the corner. But except for a few specific regions, the GOP’s material showing has yet to crack its historic 40 percent ceiling.

About the Author

Nate Hochman

Nate Hochman was a staff writer at National Review.

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Explaining away the GOP’s poor showing with nonwhite voters has become something of an art for Republicans. The mantras employed in such discussions tend to have a “next year in Jerusalem” quality — nonwhite voting blocs are always on the verge of realizing that their true home is in the GOP. “More and more Hispanics realize our conservative values of faith, family & freedom align with GOP,” Texas Republican Mayra Flores tweeted, one month before being trounced by a Democrat in her heavily Hispanic congressional district. “Latinos have always been conservative in their hearts,” Carmen Maria Montiel declared at last year’s CPAC. “I believe Democrats duped the Latinos into believing they were the party for us.”

If that’s true, the dupery has a long half-life. Over the course of the last half-century, the share of the Latino vote won by Republican presidential candidates has fluctuated between 20 and 40 percent. Recent talk of a Republican “realignment” has reinvigorated conservative hopes that paradigm-shifting inroads with the growing Hispanic voting bloc are right around the corner. But except for a few specific regions, the GOP’s material showing has yet to crack its historic 40 percent ceiling.