Democrats are trying to convince themselves that a loss at the Supreme Court over the Mississippi law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy would actually be a political win for them in the midterm elections. If the Court overturns the Roe precedent creating a constitutionally protected right to abortion, their argument goes, the Democrats will reclaim the swing suburban voters they lost in the Virginia governor’s race. They believe that a legal setback on abortion would reenergize their dispirited base and donors, while lulling conservative activists into complacency. Fear and an impending sense of loss (in this instance, of rights, as Democrats see it) have powered many successful political campaigns.
Democrats are not alone in believing Republicans have overreached with recent laws restricting access to abortion in Mississippi and Texas. Self-described moderate Republicans, who consider themselves fiscally conservative and socially liberal, worry that the party may be the dog that does not know what to do when it finally catches the car. Salivating over Biden’s sinking approval ratings — a result of rising inflation rates and recurring Covid stumbles — and well aware of the historic advantage enjoyed by the minority party in midterm elections, these moderates think their party is violating the adage to never interfere with an enemy in the process of destroying himself. They are convinced that Republicans are on a glide path to winning back Congress and possibly the White House and see any abortion rulings as unwelcome distractions.
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