Why Nikki Haley Is Gaining in Iowa

The latest survey of Iowa’s GOP primary voters conducted by Selzer & Co. for the Des Moines Register and NBC News contributes to the evidence that the 2024 race for the Republican presidential nomination is Donald Trump’s to lose. But the outstanding question remains: Can he lose it even if he tries? The degree to which Republican voters have shrugged off the former president’s criminal liabilities, his ideological inconsistencies, and even his bizarre refusal to prioritize the basic mechanics of winning elections — little things like, you know, voting — suggest that the answer is no. And yet, Selzer’s poll does not leave its careful readers with the impression that Trump has already put the race in Iowa away.

With the support of 43 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers, Trump leads the field. The former president’s support is relatively unchanged from August, when the same pollster found him winning 42 percent of the vote. What’s more, 63 percent of GOP voters who picked Trump as their first choice say they are locked in and won’t be changing their minds. But among all likely participants in the Republican caucus, just 41 percent describe themselves as similarly unpersuadable. So, less than one-third of the Republican caucus electorate in Iowa is Trump or bust. Meanwhile, 54 percent of likely GOP primary voters in Iowa are telling pollsters they’re still willing to be convinced.

The latest survey of Iowa’s GOP primary voters conducted by Selzer & Co. for the Des Moines Register and NBC News contributes to the evidence that the 2024 race for the Republican presidential nomination is Donald Trump’s to lose. But the outstanding question remains: Can he lose it even if he tries? The degree to which Republican voters have shrugged off the former president’s criminal liabilities, his ideological inconsistencies, and even his bizarre refusal to prioritize the basic mechanics of winning elections — little things like, you know, voting — suggest that the answer is no. And yet, Selzer’s poll does not leave its careful readers with the impression that Trump has already put the race in Iowa away.

With the support of 43 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers, Trump leads the field. The former president’s support is relatively unchanged from August, when the same pollster found him winning 42 percent of the vote. What’s more, 63 percent of GOP voters who picked Trump as their first choice say they are locked in and won’t be changing their minds. But among all likely participants in the Republican caucus, just 41 percent describe themselves as similarly unpersuadable. So, less than one-third of the Republican caucus electorate in Iowa is Trump or bust. Meanwhile, 54 percent of likely GOP primary voters in Iowa are telling pollsters they’re still willing to be convinced.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.