As the Russia–Ukraine war has played out, many observers have wondered what its course might tell us about a future conflict between Taiwan and China.
Even before the Russian invasion, the PRC was taking a more aggressive posture toward neighboring Taiwan. After years of increased military spending, militarization of the South China Sea, and regional belligerence, Beijing had begun ramping up military violations of Taiwanese airspace and aggressive diplomatic efforts to further isolate the island nation.






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