While the international community has been celebrating Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s transition from terrorist to t-shirt, the terrorist reaction to Zarqawi’s timely demise has been the usual mishmash of contradictions and bluster. On the one hand they celebrate Zarqawi’s “martyrdom,” saying he went to a better place. Yet, they threaten they will take revenge for our evil deed. They caution us not to be too celebratory — the big attacks are coming. How many times have they made this threat? Even Zarqawi said the big one was coming, and sure enough it came, much to his surprise. Is a major hit on us more likely now, with al Qaeda’s command structure in tatters, with 200 follow-on raids in the week since Zarqawi was taken down, with the entire organization trying to figure out who the mole was who sold out their leader? Are those the essential preconditions for mounting a large operation? Oh, don’t bother them with details.

Anyway, according to a statement from the Mujahedin Shura Council, we cannot claim any credit at all for Zarqawi’s death. We only hit him by accident while conducting routine random house bombings in the neighborhood. It was God’s will that Zarqawi happened to be there, they said. It was predestination. (So why did God will the death of his faithful servant who was doing such a good job in his service? Maybe God is on the other side? Hey, shut up!) Plus, Zarqawi was so tough the bombs didn’t even kill him, we had to beat him to death while he was strapped down to a gurney. I’m still waiting for the “he’s not really dead” story line; the “he was no longer useful to the Americans so they got rid of him” fantasy is already out there, but only on American blogs. Terrorists would never believe something that silly.

Al Qaeda rushed out a statement naming a successor, Abu Hamza al-Muhajer, about whom little is known. “Abu Hamza” is a common nom de guerre in bad-guy circles, and “al-Muhajer” is as well — referring to the muhajiroun (emigrants) who followed Mohammed from Mecca to Medina. One report said he was an Egyptian, with experience in Afghanistan, and a follower of Abdullah Azzam, Osama bin Laden’s spiritual mentor who coined the term “al Qaeda.” Other reports speculate he may be a Saudi. Abu Hamza’s first statement as emir of AQ in Iraq, published in the Mujahedin News on June 13, promised that “what will happen in the coming days is something that will turn your children’s hair white _ battles that will reveal the falsehood of your might, the weakness of your soldiers and your lies.” Is that supposed to scare us? Can you imagine a Pentagon press briefing with threats of this type? “Soon the terrorists will feel the wrath of our mighty armies, their bones will shake in fear, their beards will fall out, and their lying tongues will choke them in the perfidy of their falsehoods. O.K, we have time for a few questions.”

A point that has been over made in the last week is the hydra concept — that when you take down a terror leader two or three more rise to take their place. If the math is correct, our best move would be to never kill a leader, or else face an exponential terrorist explosion. But surely it does not take the death of someone like Zarqawi to swell the ranks of the bad guys — after all, a living leader can recruit an endless number of followers. Potential terrorists don’t wait to sign up only after someone dies. Anyway, think of the reverse concept, the number of people who will go on to have productive lives because Zarqawi’s life ended. A Muslim scholar, quoted in London Arab press, made reference to Koranic verse 2:179, “there is life for you in retaliation.” “Do you know how many lives there are in the death of someone like al-Zarqawi?” he said. “A great number, if you only knew!”

It is not clear that terrorist leaders are as fungible as some people would like to think. Someone like Zarqawi, with decades of experience in the craft of terrorism, will not be easily replaced. Terror networks are built on personal connections, and it will be difficult for the bad guys to rebuild from the loss of such a critical node in their associational scheme. Whether Abu Hamza has what it takes remains to be seen. But there is a clear deterrent effect in targeting terrorist leaders. The Israelis have been successful at it. Saudi Arabia too — each time they took down a leader of the local al Qaeda outfit, the terrorists would announce a new one — until so many went down they stopped identifying their leaders. Another point that was made too often last week was that Zarqawi’s death did not mean the end of the conflict. Of course no one believed it would, but the government has become so sensitive to managing expectations that it was apparently felt necessary to emphasize that fact over and over. I think the net effect was negative, playing into the hands of those who seek to emphasize the futility of the fight. Meanwhile Zarqawi’s demise drove from the headlines the completion of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s cabinet, agreement having been reached within his governing coalition on appointments for the defense and interior portfolios. This was substantial, if overdue progress. It was a watershed event, since now the Iraqi people have the first full, functioning government put in place under their new constitution.

President Bush’s visit to Iraq sends the right messages; support for the new government, support for the troops, and commitment to get the job done. But the manner in which he went — in secret, unannounced, staying only a brief time in country — underscores the fact that we have not yet brought the level of security to Iraq that we need. I look forward to the presidential visit that is announced in advance and lasts longer than a few hours. When an American president can visit Baghdad in the same way he would visit London or Berlin, then we’ll know we’ve really won this thing.

— James S. Robbins is senior fellow in national-security affairs at the American Foreign Policy Council, a trustee for the Leaders for Liberty Foundation, and author of Last in Their Class: Custer, Picket and the Goats of West Point. Robbins is also an NRO contributor.