The punditocracy’s line this election cycle has been that the Tea Party, anti-Democratic surge has passed New York by. There’s some truth to that. The charismatic and highly qualified Joe DioGuardi barely threatened incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, despite her low approval rating — DioGuardi’s apocalyptic warnings about the budget just didn’t catch on with New York voters. So too have Carl Paladino’s gaffes deprived New York conservatives of what could have been a real chance to reclaim the governorship; he’s hurt down-ticket Republicans as well.

Things are tough in New York as a whole. 27 of her 29 House seats are currently held by Democrats. But there’s some good news for Republicans. Here are two races to watch:

  • In NY-20, Col. Dr. Chris Gibson is poised to take down Democratic incumbent Scott Murphy. Gibson is, without question, an impressive guy. He served 7 combat tours in the Army, including 4 in Iraq, and left the service with a Purple Heart and two Bronze Stars. Then he took a PhD in Government from Cornell. In debates, he was impressively cerebral while sparring with Scott Murphy — how often do House candidates quote Amity Shlaes and argue about depression economics? The most recent Siena Research Institute poll gave Gibson a 9-point advantage. This week, Murphy released an internal poll showing up by 2. That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
  • In NY-19, Republican Nan Hayworth is, like Gibson, a cerebral candidate happy to identify with, and benefit from, Tea Party sentiment. The Cornell and Princeton educated opthamologist is campaigning as a businesswoman and mother against John Hall, the incubment Senator, Democrat, and former musician. Hall’s attempt to sue one of Hayworth’s college staffers over a satirical video reeks of desperation. That desperation is appropriate: the New York Times gives Hayworth a 70% chance of unseating Hall.