G. Terry Madonna, pollster and director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College, has released a new poll showing the Pennsylvania gubernatorial contest tightening to a four-point differential with Tom Corbett maintaining his lead.

Battle ‘10 caught up with Mr. Madonna today to get further insight into his poll.

“Now you’ve got three polls in two days, and all three are showing [virtually] the same results, a narrowing of the gap,” explained Madonna. “Take all three, and they’re basically within margins of error.”

“This is a drop from one month or six weeks ago when Corbett lead by 8-10.”

But is this tightening of the governor’s race likely to impact turnout or early voting?

“That’s the critical question,” replied Madonna. “No one knows for sure.” But Madonna observed that with Rendell at 35 percent approval, it will be difficult for Dan Onorato “to succeed an unpopular Democrat. Gov. Rendell is still promoting lots of taxes in the state, and that’s not popular in the poll we did.”

Rendell made headlines yesterday for saying “we can’t afford not to” build a new high-speed Amtrak line that would cost upwards of $117 billion, and cut travel time along the Boston-New York-Philadelphia-Washington corridor.

“Concern for taxes, debts and deficits, and general concern about state’s fiscal problems,” are dominating most voters minds, said Madonna. It’s telling, he said, that “neither is supporting tax hikes.”

“The question is, can Onorato make gains despite the headwind he’s sailing into because of the national environment. Consider that Republicans are 10 percent more likely to vote than Democrats in Pennsylvania.”

Despite some uncertainty, and the jockeying that will inevitably come in the final 30 days before Election Day, Madonna paints a bleak picture for Dan Onorato.

“Not a single poll done — publicly — has given Onorato a lead. All show Corbett ahead. All the fundamentals favor the Republicans.”