The Pennsylvania senate race between Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak continues to confound boosters on both sides. The only daily tracking poll being conducted, by Muhlenberg College/Morning Call, suggests cause for optimism among Toomey supporters. After briefly being overtaken by Sestak last week, Toomey now commands an eight point lead, according to the poll. That represents an 11 point swing in sentiment in the space of roughly one week.

Reuters/Ipsos, however, has released another poll today showing the race still in a dead heat, with each candidate drawing 46 percent of the vote. This poll surveyed likely voters over a four day period, while Muhlenberg captures a larger seven day sample:

While there remains serious cause for concern about Toomey’s chances at election — mainly thanks to uncertainty about the level of turnout from Democrats in urban areas — there is also considerable reason to discount the notion that Joe Sestak is, in fact, surging in the polls.

We’ll turn to a survey of analysis from across the spectrum:

On Philadelphia

Jon Ward at The Daily Caller on the central role of Philadelphia:

Philadelphia is a treasure trove of voters for a Democrat candidate: they outnumber Republicans 832,256 to 136,657. They are one-fifth of the entire state’s 4.3 million Democrats, though much less than half of Philadelphia Democrats usually vote. There are 3.1 million registered Republicans statewide.
Sestak is spending much of his time here. He has five events in Philadelphia Tuesday alone between 6 a.m. and 12:15 p.m.
President Obama will be here again on Saturday for another rally on the heels of a campaign stop earlier this month. First lady Michelle Obama will come here Monday. Other major national Democrats are also expected.

On ‘Surging’

John Micek at the Morning Call on the sharply swinging polls:

Providing A Stark Reminder that something is only a “surge” if it keeps happening, Republicans Tom Corbett and Pat Toomey have solidified their leads over Democratic rivals Dan Onorato and Joe Sestak in this morning’s Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll. In the U.S. Senate race, Toomey leads Sestak 48-40 percent with 12 percent still undecided. In the battle for the governor’s office, Corbett leads Onorato 50-39 percent with 11 percent undecided.

On Sestak’s Ceiling

CQPolitics.com reports “no more room” for Sestak to grow his numbers:

“Notably, however, just as observers mistook Sestak’s gradual consolidation of the Democratic base vote for a sudden shift in his favor, they are now also missing the shift that is taking place in Toomey’s direction,” [Toomey pollster Jon] Lerner wrote.
He continued: “Sestak has no more room to grow his numbers among strong partisan Democrats, and he is failing to capture voters in the center of the electorate.
“While we do not release internal polls, we have seen similar movement in Toomey’s direction, including among key demographic groups such as seniors, conservative Democrats, and ticket-splitters. There is no question that this is a close race, but there is also no question that Toomey is ahead, and is well positioned to win in eight days.”

On Turnout

Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics writes:

[I]t doesn’t appear that the screens being used by pollster this year are creating an electorate that resembles 2004 at all. Instead, the partisan environment these pollsters’ screens are producing is somewhere between 2006 and 2008 – the type of electorate you’d expect to see in a good Democratic year.
A quick examination of the crosstabs indicates that these pollsters are almost all seeing the same basic environment in race after race: Republicans and Democrats are drawing near unanimous support from their partisans, while Democrats are drawing support from 35-40 percent of Independents.
In other words, these pollsters don’t disagree on how Republicans, Democrats and Independents are going to cast their votes. Instead, they disagree on how many Republicans, Democrats and Independents are going to cast their vote.

Sestak’s core challenge is the task of persuading moderates and independents. Last week’s televised debates were opportunities for Sestak to portray himself as electable, but with each man missing no opportunity to characterize the other as extreme, it seems possible, if not probable, that the “extreme” label could be moot.

“It’s not just an enthusiasm gap, it’s an issues gap,” political consultant Charlie Gerow told Battle ‘10. “It was clear it was always going to tighten, but Toomey remains the favorite in the race.”

In terms of voting support from union members, Gerow was unfazed. It’s “no surprise” the unions will be working for Sestak, he said. The AFL-CIO has a “very effective get out the vote machinery. Whether or not they can overcome tremendous enthusiasm gap remins to be seen. I don’t think they can.”

But come Nov. 2, Gerow reiterated, it’ll be about “the issues.” Voters are “angry about the direction of the country, and Republicans and Independents are going to vote that anger” to the detriment of Joe Sestak.

Colin Hanna, president of Let Freedom Ring, a constitutional public policy group, spoke to Battle ‘10 about the impact of negative advertising as it could impact voters’ impressions of the two men.

“There’s no question Joe Sestak has pummeled [Toomey] with negative advertising, and although it’s regrettable, such advertising often achieves its goal, driving up the negatives and down the positives,” Hanna told Battle ‘10.

But “when people see them face them face,” qualified Hanna, “people can intuitively sense genuineness versus posing. Pat comes across in winsome way that makes people conformable and encouraging that there’s someone who proceeds based on a set of values.”