According to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasts hosted by the New York Times, Rob Portman is likely to win a six-point victory come November. More frightening yet for Democrats, however, is the projected chance of Lee Fisher to win the seat. Excerpt from the accompanying Times story:

Particularly vexing to the Democrats might be their standing in Missouri and Ohio, where the Republican incumbents — Christopher S. Bond and George V. Voinovich — are retiring and identifiable members of the G.O.P.’s establishment have been nominated to replace them: Representative Roy Blunt of Missouri, the former Republican Minority Whip, and in Ohio, Rob Portman, the former congressman who served as trade representative and budget director in the Bush administration. And so far, the Democrats’ strategy of Bush-bashing does not seem to be resonating in these states. Mr. Fisher has only about a 20 percent chance of prevailing in Ohio, according to the model, and Mrs. Carnahan – once considered a strong nominee – has about a 1-in-10 chance of doing so in Missouri.