Peter: I’m sure there are at least three dozen Corner readers who have written dissertations on Christians in the Islamic world, but I will nonetheless wade in with my limited knowledge. You’re right that there were still many Christians in the Middle East after the Arab conquest. In fact, at the very beginning, non-Arabs weren’t even welcome to convert, though that changed quickly. Some places turned overwhelmingly Muslim very fast (Iran, the Maghreb), while Egypt and Syria and Mesopotamia did not. But given that Christians and Jews were the negroes of the Islamic empire, protected only so long as they accepted their subordinate status, the proportion of Muslims grew, and after the Crusades Islam became the majority religion. In fact, I think it likely that the glory of Islamic civilization is inversely related to the proportion of Muslims in the society; i.e., in the Abbasid Empire (and later the Ottoman Empire), culture flourished precisely because most of the people weren’t Muslim, and decline began as soon as that changed.

As to democratization: If Egypt or Syria turned into Switzerland tomorrow, the Christians there would bask in the warm light of freedom. Alas, becoming Switzerland is not on the agenda. It is, on the other hand, realistic to hope that Iraq and its neighbors can develop less-awful governments that are somewhat more responsive to the public. And in that circumstance, the Christians will be fed to the wolves (the Jews having already been consumed). Dalrymple’s book is actually a good illustration of this — in (sort of) democratic Turkey, he described Christians living circumscribed, fearful lives, whereas in very undemocratic Syria, they did not need to hide their religion. A more immediate example is the difficulties Christians face in Iraqi Kurdistan, which is the closest thing to a democracy that country has ever seen.

Someday, when tolerant, modernist strains of Islam become dominant, this will no longer be the case. But the road from here to there will be long, and there will be few, if any, Christians left when the Middle East reaches that destination.