…in the majority leader race:

–Shadegg is still being hurt by his late entry. It’s very hard to turn around members when they have already made commitments.

–Members from red districts in red states feel no particular urgency about this year politically. They just don’t hear agitation from their constituents back home that would make them nervous.

–Blunt is the incumbent, which gives him all the traditional advantages (money, the ability to dole out favors, etc.). These advantages are traditional for a reason–they usually work.

It doesn’t mean the situation isn’t still fluid or that Blunt won’t be in trouble if he doesn’t get a first ballot victory. But you would obviously rather be in Blunt’s position than anyone else’s at this point.