I was talking to a Bush strategist yesterday who was making the case that Bush was in OK shape. Incumbents lose when their job approval is in the low 40’s or high 30’s–like Carter or Bush. Incumbents win when their approval is above 50–like Reagan or Clinton. Even with all the bad news, Bush seemed to hit a “floor,” according to this strategist, of an approval rating of 46-49, meaning that he can take a punch and he’s still in a spot where he can win. Sure, there was the Newsweek poll that had him at 42, but no other poll had him that low. I wonder if this strategist’s mild optimism has survived the new CBS poll that has Bush’s rating at 41, seeming to put him closer to Carter and Bush I territory.