Bart Motes (I don’t know who he is either) has an item up at the Huffington Post with the headline:

National Review Says McCain is Still Gonna Lose

He continues:

Saw all the polls showing McCain up? Had a big gulp when Gallup showed McCain way up? Relax. Jonah Goldberg helpfully reminds us why McCain is going to lose in the end.

You have to read the piece to discover that I don’t say anything of the sort. The piece he quotes from is a piece I wrote 8 years ago about Gore’s convention bounce. I don’t dispute that convention bounces are usually temporary and I’d be surprised if Obama didn’t take the lead again and vice versa. It’s gonna be a wild ride this fall.

In fact I don’t dispute anything I wrote in that old G-File (which might be a fun read for those nostalgic for the old fare).

But here is one cautionary note for Obama followers: Almost every rule of thumb of American politics has been broken or bruised in this election season. Falling back on something that doesn’t even quite reach the rule of thumb level of predictive power — i.e. the “science” of convention bounces — seems a bit desperate.