The Massachusetts gubernatorial race is an important one for Republicans. The state tends to produce political figures of significance beyond the state — think Teddy Kennedy, Mitt Romney, and Scott Brown — and, with several GOP governors on the ropes tonight, a win in liberal Massachusetts would be a shot in the arm.

Baker is the sort of Republican who can win in Massachusetts, and there aren’t many: He’s a social moderate, and his campaign put a lot of effort into portraying him that way: His early television ads called attention to the fact that he is pro-choice and supports gay marriage. One featured his gay brother. Baker also passes the intellectual-credibility test Republicans are put through in a state with a left-leaning and sophisticated electorate. Like Romney, he’s an MBA with a background in government and the private sector as an administrator who can get things done.

Finally, Baker has benefited from his opponent, Democrat Martha Coakley. She’s not likeable, she’s not a good candidate and Baker’s affability presents a rather stark contrast, as did Scott Brown’s in the 2010 special election.

It will be a close race, but Republicans feel good about it. They won’t get a much better candidate in a state like Massachusetts.