The latest entry in this primary season’s premature pronouncements appears in The New York Observer. In “Why the Conservatives Like Rudy,” Jennifer Rubin writes that “Rudy Giuliani has utterly defied the pundits who predicted that Republican voters would never accept a twice divorced, pro-choice New Yorker.” She goes on to point out that the former mayor “has cemented his lead in national polls and in South Carolina.” She wonders, “Why did the pundits and many conservative critics get it so wrong. . . ?” My own punditry has included the observation that Rudy Giuliani faces possibly insurmountable barriers in his quest for the nomination. I think he still does.

Although she allows that Giuliani “does not have the nomination in the bag yet,” Rubin believes that his success represents a significant development many of us missed — “the maturation of many conservative primary-goers.” It would be premature to declare Giuliani’s candidacy doomed. But Rubin’s “case closed, conservatives rally to Rudy” is also premature and simply not supported by the available evidence.

Where Rubin sees a solid lead in the national polls, I see a striking weakness. Since March, Giuliani had been steadily sinking in the national polls, leveling off in August to an average of 27.8. (Hillary Clinton, who I think is clearly favored to win the Democratic nod, has been steadily ticking up and her support averages 37.8). Polling in South Carolina is mixed — Rasmussen has Thompson ahead and Giuliani’s average lead in polls is within the margin of error. Some cement.

Giuliani is the Republican’s well-known celebrity candidate, the hero of 9/11, and the tough guy who cleaned up New York who can be counted on to wage an aggressive fight against terrorism. He is raising plenty of money and campaigning energetically. And, about 70 percent of Republican voters are currently turning thumbs down. The things that won’t appeal to conservatives aren’t as well-known as the record and attributes that made him such a hit at GOP dinners over the past years. A recent Pew study found only 40 percent of Republicans aware of his pro-choice position on abortion and many don’t realize he favors “comprehensive” immigration reform, including amnesty. Most Republicans couldn’t pick out Donna Hanover’s name on a multiple-choice question about the mayor’s multiple marriages. What countervailing positives will conservatives learn that will win them over to him?

Rubin provides a number of reasons for what she sees as conservatives’ undeniably strong support for Giuliani. She notes that Hillary Clinton “instills a fear verging on hysteria among conservatives” and buys the notion that Giuliani would be more competitive in some blue states than other Republicans. I think that’s a fantasy for another day.

Like so many of Giuliani’s conservative fans, Rubin condescends to social conservatives who she believes “may have come to realize that on abortion the action is in the courts.” What Rubin sees as a welcome “maturation” is not a recent revelation. Every January since 1974, tens of thousands of pro-lifers have come to Washington to march on the Supreme Court in bone-chilling weather. The central role of the court in the fight over abortion is not a recent revelation.

The GOP field is fluid. There is no conventional frontrunner. Conservative voters could split their support in ways that benefit Giuliani. Despite the obstacles, there’s a small chance he wins the nomination. But it won’t be because he’s a comfortable fit for the large majority of the GOP base, or because conservatives have grown up.