The war in Iraq has had a two-fold and contradictory effect on the Korean crisis. On the one hand, the Iraq war has convinced the Chinese that, unless they help us in Korea, they may soon face war to their south. A war in Korea could pour refugees into China, disrupt China’s lucrative trade with Seoul, and leave a pro-U.S. regime on China’s doorstep. On the other hand, the war in Iraq has convinced the North Koreans that, without a nuclear deterrent, they have no way of keeping the United States at bay. (Of course, the North Koreans were pretty much convinced of this even before Iraq.)