Democrat Jon Tester could have a more difficult time winning reelection in Montana in 2024 because he hasn’t bucked Democratic Party leadership.
Montana’s incumbent Democratic senator Jon Tester announced on Wednesday that he will seek a fourth term in the U.S. Senate:
It's official. I'm running for reelection.
Montanans need a fighter that will hold our government accountable and demand Washington stand up for veterans and lower costs for families. I will always fight to defend our Montana values. Let's get to work.
— Jon Tester (@jontester) February 22, 2023
Any Democrat running for statewide office will have a difficult time in Montana in 2024, a presidential election year in which the Republican at the top of the ticket will very likely carry the state by a healthy double-digit margin. But another Tester candidacy is the best Democrats could hope for: First elected in 2006, Tester won reelection in 2012 by 3.7 points even as Mitt Romney carried the state by 14 points. Tester again won reelection in the “blue wave” of 2018 by just 3.5 points.
Tester may have a more difficult time out-running the Democratic presidential nominee by double digits in 2024 for two reasons. First, there generally seem to be fewer ticket-splitters in Montana now than there were a decade ago. When Montana’s incumbent Democratic governor Steve Bullock ran for U.S. Senate in 2020, he lost to Republican Steve Daines by ten points while Biden lost the state by 16 points. Second, unlike Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema, Tester has not done anything to develop a reputation for bucking Democratic Party leadership on any significant issues. In 2019, Tester said he was committed to keeping the Senate filibuster, but he flip-flopped on the issue and voted to do away with the 60-vote rule in 2022. A victory in Montana in 2024 is essential for Democrats hoping to abolish the filibuster and enact a wide array of left-wing policies.