A popular theory among conservatives is that Democrats are luring Republicans into a trap: Once the GOP has committed to the roundly unpopular Donald Trump, whose case for returning to the Oval Office is based entirely upon being less terrible and decrepit than the arguably even-more-unpopular incumbent Joe Biden, the Democrats will turn around and yank Biden off the ballot, substitute somebody with less baggage, and trounce Trump.
Fear of this happening is grounded in some bad historical memories. Republicans recall the 2002 New Jersey Senate race when Doug Forrester led scandal-tarred incumbent Bob Torricelli in multiple polls before Torricelli withdrew on September 30, and the Democrats pulled out the race by slotting in former senator Frank Lautenberg. (A substitution from necessity that same fall worked less well in Minnesota, where Paul Wellstone was killed in an October 25 plane crash and Democrats drafted the retired Walter Mondale, who lost to Norm Coleman.) By contrast, when Republicans have nominated a disaster of a candidate, whether it be Todd Akin or Doug Mastriano, there is no exit. More recently, the Democratic establishment was able to coordinate in 2020 what Republicans never could in 2016 or this year: lean on Joe Biden’s rivals Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar to withdraw simultaneously from the presidential race in order to consolidate the forces opposed to a populist Bernie Sanders nomination.
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