When 23 percent of precincts had reported in Michigan’s 15th congressional district, incumbent Democrat John Dingell was losing to Republican challenger Rob Steele, 22,508 to 24,373. That came as a shock: The FiveThirtyEight forecast saw Dingell, who assumed his office in 1955 (an office in which he was preceded by his father), as a shoo-in, with a 99.6 percent chance of winning.

More recent polls are less shocking. With 42 percent of precincts reporting, Dingell is up 51 percent to 45 percent, or 40,882 to 36,168. An upset is still within the realm of possibility here.