Obama has concluded that energy concerns might motivate the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. Putting aside Iran’s past deceit, and the fact that North Korea also initially justified its program in energy concerns, the Bipartisan Policy Center had examined whether energy concerns could justify Iran’s nuclear program. Here is what they found:

Iran’s electricity consumption is growing approximately eight percent per year. By 2012, its annual consumption could be between 202 and 289 billion kilowatt hours. Until recently, the Iranian government has managed to keep production above demand, but in 2008 had to institute a series of scheduled blackouts in Tehran as demand exceeded production. Such shortages have led some Iranian officials to question the wisdom of continued Iranian electricity exports, an important Iranian soft power component, to countries such as Iraq. Three-quarters of Iran’s production is natural gas-fired; seven percent is hydroelectric, and the remainder oil-fired. While the Iranian leadership unveiled plans for a wind power plant near Yazd, this remains off-line and will not have much impact on Iran’s total electricity production.
Iran’s Ministry of Energy estimates that Iran will have to increase its capacity by a third to 60 gigawatts by 2015. It is in this context that the Iranian government justifies the one gigawatt Bushehr nuclear reactor, and perhaps seven more such reactors, with similar capacity, by 2020. Additionally, Iran and Turkey plan to build three natural gas-fired power plants with a capacity of six gigawatts as well as joint hydroelectric plants starting in 2008. Developing nuclear power may free up natural gas and petroleum for export or domestic use. The Iranian government argues that seven gigawatts of nuclear power generation would free up 190 million barrels per year of oil, equivalent to 13 percent of the country’s current production, or $7 billion annually at 2005 prices.
Should observers accept that energy needs alone motivate the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, Tehran’s nuclear calculation is unwise. The majority of Iran’s natural gas reserves have yet to be developed. Iran already relies on natural gas-fired plants to produce about 75 percent of its electricity. Increasing that production capacity would not appear to require major infrastructure investments. Six of Iran’s most populous cities—Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Shiraz, Tabriz, and Ahvaz, already have direct access to natural gas pipelines; Mashhad, Ahvaz, and Shiraz are close to major refineries. Should the Islamic Republic reform its investment climate, it could develop natural gas processing plants, pipelines, and power plants in a manner more economically attractive than with nuclear power.
Furthermore, while Iranian leaders cite a desire to become self-sufficient in energy production as a reason for their nuclear investment, number crunching suggests Iran will become dependent upon imported uranium. As Iran’s estimated conventional uranium resource is only between 15,000 and 30,000 tons, operating all its planned reactors would deplete Iran’s uranium reserves by 2023, making Iran dependent upon external sources. Both the relative expense of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program and its limited uranium resources suggest it is unlikely that energy needs alone motivate Tehran.