The race has changed, so the map has changed. Nate Silver noted the other day how Clinton’s Electoral College advantage wouldn’t look so robust, if the race got tighter nationally:

Whenever the race tightens, we get people protesting that the popular vote doesn’t matter because it’s all about the Electoral College, and that Trump has no path to 270 electoral votes. But this presumes that the states behave independently from national trends, when in fact they tend to move in tandem. We had a good illustration of this in mid-September, when in the midst of a tight race overall, about half of swing state polls showed Clinton trailing Trump, including several polls in Colorado, which would have broken Clinton’s firewall.

We see this happening now. I posted the other day how you could easily get Trump to 260, (Romney states, plus Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and the Maine district) but getting the next ten votes looked much harder. It doesn’t look so hard anymore. Adding Nevada and New Hampshire to the base 260 scenario gets him there:

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CNN yesterday had a (perhaps outlier-ish) poll with Trump up six in Nevada. And WBUR now has Trump up one in New Hampshire and ARG has him up five there.

Or if Trump isn’t going to win Nevada — veteran Nevada journalist Jon Ralston says it’s unlikely based on the early vote — Trump gets to a 269-269 tie with Colorado added to the base 260 scenario:

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The University of Denver has the race now tied in Colorado.

Or Virginia gets him there:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Hampton University has Trump up three in Virginia.

Of course, you need to look at averages, not one poll. And Hillary has had some good numbers, too — polls the last day or so have had her up in Florida and North Carolina (both crucial states), and the traditional blue states seem to be holding up for her, although narrowing. But this is all to say, if the race continues to close nationally, Trump’s map is going to look more and more plausible.