In surveys of uncommitted voters ahead of Donald Trump’s criminal trials, persuadable voters on the margins of the electorate seem convinced of two seemingly contradictory assertions. First, the former president’s pursuers are obsessed in their manic effort to charge Trump with something — anything — that might stick. That’s as true of Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg’s prosecution as it is of Georgia prosecutor Fani Willis and even the Justice Department special counsel, Jack Smith; the timing is too conspicuous, their doggedness too aggressive. These voters seem persuaded that Trump is a victim of political persecution. And yet, that belief exists concomitantly with a second widespread conviction among uncommitted voters: Whatever Trump is accused of, he probably did it.
To partisans on either side of the aisle, these two outlooks would seem to be mutually exclusive. On that, there’s reason to believe the partisans are right. With the opening of the first of Trump’s criminal trials — perhaps his only criminal trial before November’s elections — the political effect of these proceedings looms large. If the polling is to be believed, the stakes for both Trump and his prosecutors are extremely high.
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