Nicholas Eberstadt’s piece on North Korean refugees is a powerful humanitarian plea. Yet it’s much more than that. Up to now, we’ve assumed that only China has the necessary leverage on North Korea to force a fundamental change of policy–or regime. Now Eberstadt’s piece shows that South Korea too has the power to peacefully change the North Korean regime. Implicitly, Eberstadt creates a scenario in which a South Korean decision to accept North Korean refugees might start a chain reaction of the sort that led to the fall of European communism.

The problem is that both China and South Korea have power over the North, yet neither has the will to use it. Were South Korea to do what Eberstadt recommends, there is at least a chance that it could bring down the North and unite the peninsula. Yet just because of that, there’s a chance that in the chaotic transition time, the North would strike the South. So the South is reluctant to take even the seemingly simple step of accepting refugees from the North. They’d rather keep the North’s anger focused on America.

Meanwhile, the Chinese have so far refused to put real pressure on the North Koreans. Some Chinese rather like the idea of nuclear terror hanging over America’s head. Supposedly, now that China’s economic welfare is tied to our own, all that has changed. I’m not holding my breath waiting for Chinese help. But maybe–just maybe–with pressure, time, and the right confluence of factors, the South might someday be persuaded to do what Eberstadt suggests. It’s a longshot. Yet it’s also a possible way out of the Korea policy nightmare. That makes Eberstadt’s proposal very important indeed.