My understanding—having not done a count myself—is that it’s largely conservatives still who are uncommitted. Shadegg needs members of the Republican Study Committee to get on his bandwagon. Pro-Shadegg folks are concerned that if the more than half of the public members of the RSC (the most conservative members of the House) who are uncommitted at this point don’t sign up in the coming days Shadegg won’t have the Jo(hn)mentum he needs.

Stephen Spruiell has been talking to members more generally this afternoon who suggest it might be too late already for Shadegg. I don’t think that’s the case–as Stephen will explain in a bit (stay tuned) many of them may just be using that as an easy way to explain their real reasons for supporting someone else (a favor repaid, a regional loyalty, etc.). It’s more clubhouse rules and politeness keeping them in a camp or keeping them from committing. But a strong, winning message could sway their votes, is my guess, in some cases. Especially on a secret ballot?

Message-wise (check out Shadegg’s entering-the-race Dear Colleague and Pence’s guidance questions for some hints as to what it would be) and mo-wise, RSC-ers on board big-time is exactly what Shadegg needs to right now. And that’s a great signal for this GOP Congress to be leading with. (And oh how conservative will love it—rudderless, think again! They got principles!) And with a strong reform plan…it could be good stuff. It’ll have the feel of a bit of a rebirth—a return to ‘94 revolutionary goals.

Mike Pence should endorse Shadegg. It would get this ball rolling. And he’s got some power. This would be a good use of it.