This morning pollster Ann Selzer, who ran the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register (legendary in its accuracy for years) has announced her retirement. She had communicated her intention to quit after the 2024 cycle to the Register well over a year ago — I feel like I heard it through the grapevine myself some time back — but in terms of choosing the timing and tuning of one’s own exit? Well, after hitting so many high notes, sometimes even best of us fouls up the ending on a brown note.
Yes, the first (and second, third, fourth, etc.) thing I have seen in response to Selzer’s retirement announcement on social media is one wag after another kicking her in the rear on her way out the door, calling her a hack and fraud. But I wanted to post a brief note here on Sunday morning to say that Ann Selzer was one of the best pollsters in modern American history. Yes, her final poll — which showed Kamala Harris taking a shocking 47–44 lead in Iowa, a state Trump ultimately won 56–43 — was an absolute disaster. There’s no escaping the complete failure of the final number she will ever report in her career, but before we address that, let me at least explain why Selzer earned her reputation in the first place.
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