If Dean continues his Iowa fade, Bush may have to think more about his base. The GOP’s preference for a Dean nomination comes from the fact that Dean could very well get beat the way McGovern did. In a Bush-Dean race, the president can make stabs for the political center with new spending, amnesty deals, etc. and hope for an election landslide that gives him a broad mandate. (But to do what?) Against a figure like Edwards, he’ll need to gin up conservative support and make sure his base turns out for him–he might be forced to run a more conservative campaign than otherwise, and this would set a better tone for his second term. So for conservatives, an Edwards nomination may be high risk/high reward.