If you’re in Vegas tomorrow, here’s a safe bet: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will be watching the Nevada Republican Senate primary with interest — and, perhaps, a little trepidation. All three leading GOP contenders — Sharron Angle, Sue Lowden, and Danny Tarkanian — would best him come November, according to most polls. Angle, a tea-partying, “anti-beer libertarian” now looks like Reid’s most likely foe, according to Jim Geraghty’s analysis of the latest Mason-Dixon survey, which has Angle up by at least eight points against the rest of the field.

An Angle win should please Reid, if you listen to the conventional wisdom of an anonymous Nevada Republican operative who spoke with Congressional Quarterly:

The Nevada GOP strategist said Angle is “a formidable primary candidate, but she’s yet to demonstrate appeal in a general” election. Besides that, Angle lags in fundraising and has had to rely on third-party interest groups, such as the Club for Growth, to spend money on her behalf. The strategist said Angle and Tarkanian could have a hard time competing with Reid in the big leagues, saying Tarkanian “is not ready for prime time,” and “the more [Angle] talks, the less people will think she is Senatorial material.”

I’m not so sure about that. Angle certainly seems capable and sharp in this TV interview:

That doesn’t mean, of course, that she’s not vulnerable on at least some fronts:

Lowden has spent significantly on an ad that attempts to tie Angle to Scientology. In the Assembly, Angle advocated the idea of using extreme massage and saunas on prisoners because she said the technique had been successful reducing recidivism elsewhere. (It’s an idea advocated by the Church of Scientology.) Lowden’s ad features actors who appear to be convicts at a spa. In the final shot, one of the men kisses a tattoo that depicts Angle. A shrine to Tom Cruise, the noted Scientologist, also makes an appearance. It’s not clear if the ad and a few other negative Lowden spots have been effective.

Jim details more areas of concern here. Nevertheless, the tea-party star is not being shunned by the Beltway. Earlier today, for example, Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said he thinks that Angle can topple Reid. “If Sharron Angle is the nominee, I’m confident she can beat Harry Reid,” he said to Fox News Channel. Still, as The Hill notes, “the NRSC has stayed officially neutral in the primary, but Lowden has been seen by the GOP establishment in Washington as one of the better-polished candidates to take on Democrats’ leader in this fall’s election.”

To get a better sense of what’s happening on the ground out in the Silver State, National Review Online caught up with Jon Ralston, a local political analyst. He tells us that any concern about Angle’s sharp-right edges is wearing off. “The sense is that if you’re a Republican and have a pulse, you can beat Reid,” he says.

“Sure, while an Angle primary win may be Reid’s best shot at keeping his seat, because she has little interest in moving toward the middle, he remains very unpopular,” Ralston reasons. Don’t count out Lowden or Tarkanian yet either, he says. “It’s going to be a low-turnout primary and all three have a chance. Fifty-five to 60 percent of Republicans have already voted, thanks to early voting, so if Lowden is able to use her voter-identification program well, she’s right there. Tarkanian has become the forgotten man, but he could benefit from the mutual pummeling between Lowden and Angle, especially since he’s been able to capture the momentum on illegal immigration, which is a big issue in the state.”

Bob Miller, Nevada’s former Democratic governor, tells NRO that it’s difficult to predict which Republican Reid would fare best against. Angle, he says, “certainly presents the greatest contrast” to Reid, a “real dichotomy.” He notes that one of Angle’s advantages is her solid reputation in northern Nevada, a conservative hotbed, “which will need to see a good turnout for Republicans if they hope to win in a state where the Democrats hold the voter-registration edge.” If Angle can generate enthusiasm in the more rural of Nevada’s 17 counties, that’ll put pressure on Reid to “reenergize the Democrats’ base in Clark County,” which encompasses Las Vegas.

Though Miller is optimistic, I’m not sure getting anybody excited about Harry Reid this year will be easy. I think Ed Rollins, via Gerald F. Seib, has it right:

“[Reid’s] only strategy is to make his opponent an unacceptable alternative,” says veteran Republican strategist Ed Rollins, who has endorsed Ms. Lowden. Imagine voters are shopping for a new car, he says, and “what Mr. Reid has to do is flatten the tires, put a few dents in the side and spill some coffee on the seat.” Of course, maybe voters are so angry they will go for an unconventional, even dented option this year. Either way, a great political story is unfolding.

Indeed.