The morning’s tracking polls are all particularly close, except for the Los Angeles Times/USC poll, which has Trump ahead by 4 points. The argument from the Clinton folks has been that they’re not worried about any tightening in the national polling numbers, because they have such an easier path to getting 270 electoral votes.

Should the Clinton team be confident about their lead in the states? Yes, as Rich lays out below, but not as confident as they were a month ago. There’s indeed some signs that the FBI revelation has energized Republicans and has Democrats feeling less enthusiastic than before.

The Trump map counts on North Carolina staying in the Republican column, but that’s far from a done deal. After a string of recent polls showed Clinton with a small lead, this morning Elon has North Carolina tied, one of the better results for Trump in a while. (How much would Trump have been helped if Jill Stein had qualified for the ballot, instead of running as a write-in candidate in the Tarheel State?)

People are scoffing at the lopsided numbers in the newest Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania, but even if that sample smells off, Trump still hasn’t led a poll in that key state. The non-Republican pollsters in Nevada continue to show the state either tied or a small Clinton lead. Trump has never led in New Hampshire, either.

Something a little unusual: After Trump led four straight polls in Maine’s Second Congressional District, Hillary Clinton has enjoyed a narrow lead in the past three.

As noted in the Morning Jolt, the early vote numbers in Florida and Ohio aren’t really what Democrats were hoping to see at this point.

Trump’s path to 270 is now less difficult than it looked a week ago, but it still looks like a steep uphill climb.