I was just reading the Kerry Spot — because I have a passing interest in the election — and I read Matthew Dowd’s memo. Here’s what bothers me. It seems like the exit polls, as reported in the press, in Florida and Iowa seem to be breaking pretty well for Kerry. But Dowd writes:

“Furthermore, early and absentee voting has built up the President’s lead even before the polling places open. The recent CBS News/New York Times survey reveals that 20% of voters have already cast their ballots, and President Bush leads among them by 8 points, 51% to 43%.”

This appears to be a national number. Could early voting in, say, Texas be skewing the sample in favor of state’s we know he’s going to win anyway?

update: D’oh: if you read the next post on the Kerry Spot, Jim deals with some of these issues. But I’m still concerned.