Every campaign needs a narrative, a storyline for why a candidate is in the arena. A while ago Rich noted, in this very helpful post, that the narrative for Giuliani was that he was going to be “a tough S.O.B. — for you.” In other words he was gonna go medieval on al Qaeda the way he had on the squeegee men and turnstile-jumpers. This remains the chief source of Giuliani’s appeal within the base of the GOP (if not necessarily with average Americans). The McCain camp seems to have understood this better than Giuliani going into last night’s debate. His feisty, at times awkward, junkyard dog routine was intended to send the signal that if you want someone to fight the war on terror the Chicago Way, he’s your man.

Lots of members of the GOP base are pissed-off. They’re pissed-off about runaway spending and the size of government, they’re pissed off (fairly or not) that we aren’t fighting the war on terror with both hands, they’re pissed off that Republicans seem (again, fairly or not) so meek in the face of criticism. Bernard Goldberg’s (no relation) new book gives a good sense of where the Fox-watching rank-and-file are right now psychologically: “Crazies to the Left of Me, Wimps to the Right: How One Side Lost Its Mind and the Other Lost Its Nerve.” McCain sent the signal he’s all nerve, raw, exposed, slightly crazy nerve. The “gates of Hell” line, for example, was brilliant, if not brilliantly delivered. He’s going to be a mad dog — for you.

Meanwhile, Giuliani seems to have forgotten why he’s the front runner. Optimism is nice, hooray for cheeriness. But what the base wants to here is proof that he’s going to be the “tough S.O.B. — for us.” He didn’t even come close to doing that. Meanwhile, McCain went almost too far in that direction last night. But too far in this situation is a lot better than not far enough.

Update: Oh, forgot to mention: That Survey USA poll K-Lo posts below is of California watchers only (as Mickey Kaus notes ), which partially explains the reason why Giuliani won. My point is less about the specifics of who won the debate itself and more about who put down a marker about the story they’re going to tell. McCain seemed to be writing his in blood. Giuliani used a pencil, and mostly just the eraser.