Just looking at his pre-Iowa numbers in South Carolina and Florida, it’s not clear to me why he wouldn’t–depending on events and the correlation of forces at the time–win both. In the RCP averages, he’s leading South Carolina by 6.5% and running second in Florida by 2% right behind Rudy. Before Iowa. He’s probably going to bump up in both places. (A friend was just marveling at Rudy staking so much on Florida, pointing out that it’s not a liberal or moderate state, at least not in Republican primary politics.) Romney and McCain are now in a competition in New Hampshire to see–barring a Thompson resurrection–who will be the mainstream conservative alternative to him in those places.