In the Gray Zone: Back to the Bottom of the Sea

The cable guys appear to have been back in action yet again, this time celebrating Christmas in their own way, with a mysterious ship apparently being responsible for slicing an electricity cable (Estlink 2) and a couple of communications cables between Finland and Estonia. The damage to the electricity cable will take some months to repair and is significant enough to mean that electricity prices there may rise in the next few months. Estonia has stepped up its protection of a second cable, Estlink 1.

In addition to being another example of now-routine harassment, the sabotage may come with an extra objective. All three Baltic states are detaching themselves from BRELL, the Soviet-era grid that covers Russia and Belarus, and joining the Western European network through Poland (LitPol), Sweden (NordBalt), and the two Estlinks in February. Lithuania has held off doing this for two years in order that the Baltic trio can leave together. They too are sending a message. This switch will, of course, also bolster their energy security. According to the Foreign Policy Research Institute, it can be accelerated if necessary, a process in which the Estlinks would be used. Was that what those cutting the cable wanted to disrupt?

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Andrew Stuttaford

Andrew Stuttaford is the editor of National Review's Capital Matters.

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The cable guys appear to have been back in action yet again, this time celebrating Christmas in their own way, with a mysterious ship apparently being responsible for slicing an electricity cable (Estlink 2) and a couple of communications cables between Finland and Estonia. The damage to the electricity cable will take some months to repair and is significant enough to mean that electricity prices there may rise in the next few months. Estonia has stepped up its protection of a second cable, Estlink 1.

In addition to being another example of now-routine harassment, the sabotage may come with an extra objective. All three Baltic states are detaching themselves from BRELL, the Soviet-era grid that covers Russia and Belarus, and joining the Western European network through Poland (LitPol), Sweden (NordBalt), and the two Estlinks in February. Lithuania has held off doing this for two years in order that the Baltic trio can leave together. They too are sending a message. This switch will, of course, also bolster their energy security. According to the Foreign Policy Research Institute, it can be accelerated if necessary, a process in which the Estlinks would be used. Was that what those cutting the cable wanted to disrupt?