Jonah, I agree with you that Iraq is no longer having any deterrent effect. My point (a variant of your own) is that Iraq does have a deterrent effect as long as the American public sees the venture as worthwhile. I agree that the key is for America to perceive Iraq as a success. My point is that the quick democratization standard was mistaken. We created a false standard for success, and that is our problem. Once we focus on the big picture, and off of the false standard of quick democratization, the public will see Iraq in a new way. It will take a debate about Iran to make that change, and it won’t be easy, but that is what’s needed. We need to see peace and democracy in Iraq is icing on the cake. The real goal is the proof of resolve against Iran and others. If the public sees that, it might change its view of what’s important and what success means.

Iran and North Korea were working on bombs well before Iraq. Iraq didn’t make them get nukes. Our problem is that technological advance has intervened to make the nuclear option widely available. That was happening independently. It’s just that 9/11 woke us up to the real implications.