Just talked to an intelligence source based in Iraq who I have found to be quite realistic and cautious. He made three points: 1) We have been able to “thicken” our forces on the ground in Baghdad–with more combat outposts out among the population–even as we draw down, because less troops have to be devoted to offensive operations against AQI, etc.; 2) The fight against Sadr seems to be trending our way. The population is sick of the violence. As AQI has been pushed out of a lot of areas and diminished, it has made the militias seem a much bigger problem. No one worried about the them so much when AQI and the Sunni insurgency were on a murderous rampage. And the government has become much more suspicious of Iran. He sees more of an Iraqi nationalist point of view beginning to take hold.; 3) He expects conditions will allow us to continue to draw down by, say, a brigade or two toward the end of the year, and then down to 10 brigades next summer, half the level of the surge. 4) Petraeus and Crocker were understandably subdued in tone in their testimony (with all the over-selling that has gone on in the past), but consequently they understated the extent to which the surge is working.