Heading into the first debate, Donald Trump was in pretty good shape, either tied or gaining fast, with a path to 270 visible. Then he turned in a performance that was anywhere from sub-par to awful, spent a week arguing about the weight of Miss Venezuela and fumed on Twitter in the wee small hours of the morning. Unsurprisingly, during that abysmal week, Trump lost a lot of ground, both nationally and in swing states.

As the week progresses, the bleeding appears to have stopped. The New York Times story on his tax returns turned out to be less damaging than initially appeared. Mike Pence had a strong performance Tuesday night. A new Boston Globe poll puts Trump only down by 2 in New Hampshire. A new Emerson poll puts him narrowly ahead in Florida again.

The race isn’t lost for the Republican nominee; Trump just needs to turn in a strong debate performance Sunday night.

And there’s the big question. Everybody knows what Trump has to do. He has to prepare. He has to stay cool, stay focused, return again and again to his core message: “Nothing will change if you vote for her.” Trump has to attack Washington in general and Clinton’s record specifically. He has to return, over and over again, to the plight of ordinary Americans who feel that any economic recovery has passed them by, who feel the American dream is slipping away, and that Washington’s establishment has forgotten them, when it isn’t mocking and laughing at them. Trump has to avoid taking the bait every time Hillary Clinton focuses on some topic that gets under Trump’s skin, like his wealth. He has to make sure that he uses his time, forty-five minutes or so, talking about the issues most advantageous to him, not the ones most advantageous to her.

It’s a town hall-style debate. He should keep returning to the theme, “this election is about you, and whether you feel like Washington has been serving your interests or somebody else’s.”

This is not rocket science. This is not Mission: Impossible. He is not taking on a whirling dervish of raw political charisma. But once he’s out on that stage, it’s all on him. Mike Pence can’t help him nor can Kellyanne Conway or anyone else. He will rise or fall based upon what he does in those ninety minutes.

Trump has one strike against him. Two more, and he’s out.