Sean Parnell, president of the Center for Competitive Politics, wrote me an e-mail in response to my post. He confirms my suspicion that there is almost no chance that the Supreme Court is going to strike down laws banning corporations from contributing to political candidates. “The issue here is independent expenditures, not direct contributions. Overturning Austin would only allow corporations (and unions) to spend their own money on ads urging the election or defeat of candidates, not contribute to candidates. Those would still be banned.”

Parnell also weighs in on the question of whether respect for precedent demands re-affirming Austin. Austin, he points out, was itself contrary to Buckley v. Valeo (1976). Go with the older precedent, Chief Justice Roberts!

The brief from Parnell’s group is here.