There’s a lot of exuberance on the GOP side, maybe irrationally so. But if you assume that the polls are correct, Trump is in a good position.

Looking at the New York Times swing-state averages, if Trump wins the states where he’s ahead, he’ll win the election. But it’s extremely close, and functionally indistinguishable from a tie. If there’s a hiccup in the polls that underestimates Harris’ support, or some turnout advantage for her at the end, she could win.

I’ve pretty much always considered Trump the favorite and continue to do so, but this thing is on a knife’s edge.