Down beneath the high-profile contests this year, Democrats and Republicans are also battling furiously over control of the nation’s state legislatures. A key element of the GOP revolution in the mid-1990s was an historic gain in political power in state capitals, where Republicans obtained a majority of the nation’s governorships and took over a number of legislative chambers in states where Democrats had maintained monopoly control for decades.

The tide receded. In 2004, Democrats regained much of its lost ground in gubernatorial and legislative turf, and then added even more victories in the party’s triumphant 2006 cycle. Going into the current cycle, Democrats had a 28-22 majority in governorships and fully controlled 23 state legislatures, vs. 14 controlled by Republicans and 12 where power was split (Nebraska unicameral legislature is nonpartisan). The divide looked a bit closer when you just count seats: Democrats held 52 percent of state senate districts and 55 percent of state house districts.

As of mid-October, the outlook is somewhat favorable to Democrats. Out of 23 closely divided legislative chambers being heavily targeted by the parties, only four are leaning Republican and eight are leaning Democratic, with 11 rated as toss-ups by Stateline.org. Democrats have hopes of capturing the senates in New York, Nevada, Alaska, and North Dakota, along with the houses in Delaware, Arizona, Montana, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Republicans have a shot of taking the senates in Montana, Maine, and New Hampshire, plus tipping the balance their way in the two tied state senates in Oklahoma and Tennessee. In houses, the GOP’s best shots are in Indiana and Pennsylvania. They also have a reasonable chance to gain some seats in states such as Colorado and North Carolina, though likely falling short of a majority.

A key factor to consider is the overlap between presidential and legislative battlegrounds. My guess is that Republican prospects at the state level are best in places such as Tennessee and Oklahoma where McCain-Palin will win convincingly, while Democrats will benefit from a solid Democratic performance in places such as New York and Delaware that may well extend into previously reddish regions. Obviously, legislative outcomes in hotly contested states such as Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, New Hampshire, and North Carolina will be significantly affected by get-out-the-vote operations for president.

If the national GOP takes another bath this year, Democrats will likely gain a bit more in the state capitals. The only saving grace for Republicans is that they don’t have a lot of low-hanging legislative fruit for the Dems to snatch this year. That already happened in 2004 and 2006.