What do people see in John McCain, anyway? He is an ideological problem for conservatives, but he could well win today, and if he does then the nomination might be his for the taking.

How did he win in New Hampshire? As a group, his voters are as impervious to simple labels as their candidate. There is no such thing as a “typical” McCain supporter. In New Hampshire, nearly 50 percent of McCain’s voters chose him hoping for a more conservative president than Bush. And nearly 40 percent chose him hoping for a less conservative president than Bush. McCain can be sold to anyone, if they’re just willing to look at him the right way.

Gov. Mike Huckabee’s Iowa victory was marked by his success among Evangelicals and his failure among everyone else. McCain’s victory in New Hampshire, by contrast, was surprisingly well distributed among each income, age, and religious group. He performed roughly the same among men and women, the married and the unmarried, the religious and the irreligious, registered Republicans and registered Independents. McCain won among Protestants and “other Christians,” with 35 percent each, and tied Romney among Catholics with 38 percent.

Among pro-lifers, he beat Romney, 37 to 33 percent. He did the same among pro-choicers, 36 to 30 percent. Weekly churchgoers backed McCain (37 to 33 percent for Romney), as did those who “never” attend church (36 to 32 percent). Voters who felt their families are “getting ahead” in this economy (35 percent), “holding steady” (37 percent) or “falling behind” (38 percent) gave McCain nearly identical levels of support.

An antagonist of the gun lobby, McCain still defeated Romney decisively among gun-owners, 42 to 27 percent. A well-identified hawk on Iraq — perhaps the most hawkish candidate in the race from either party — McCain finished first among those opposed to the war, with 44 percent.

If you look at McCain on the issues, everything is counterintuitive. This points to the fact that the issues are irrelevant. His success in New Hampshire did not depend on Republicans there liking his positions on issues. The only clear distinguishing mark of a McCain voter in New Hampshire was that he chose his candidate based on “personal qualities.” Among such voters, McCain scored 48 percent, and only 25 percent among those who voted instead based on “issues.”

And that is the key. It squares nicely with Mark Hemingway’s observations about McCain on the campaign trail with veterans in Michigan. Even if they are staunch conservatives, veterans may not care about CAFE standards or campaign finance reform enough to change the fact that they just like John McCain. Whether he wins or not, the exit polls will likely show the same strange bedfellows lining up behind him tonight for his “personal qualities.”