From the first Morning Jolt of the week:

Losing Candidate Does Okay in Debate, Remains In Losing Position
By the cold light of morning, Donald Trump’s surprisingly good performance in the debate is less significant than it seemed when everyone turned off their televisions last night.
He entered the first debate almost tied, then had a bad night, stepping into every trap and forgetting to bring up his strongest issues. Then he exacerbated it with a terrible week, re-fighting the Miss Venezuela allegations and Tweeting in the wee small hours of the morning. He lost ground in the state and national polls. Last week, Mike Pence had a good night in the vice-presidential debate, and that seemed to stop the bleeding… and then the “grab them by the” tape appeared.
Sunday brought a slew of new polls, almost none of them good for Trump. After leading in Ohio for a long while, he’s trailed the last three surveys there. Another two new polls in Florida have him trailing; he’s trailed six of the last seven surveys there. Pennsylvania continues to look out of reach.
Yes, CBS puts him within four in Wisconsin, but he’s never led there, so there’s little reason to think it will suddenly flip to red on Election Day. He still leads in Iowa.
Before the revelation of the “grab them by the” tape, Trump needed something dramatic to change the race in his favor. The tape is likely to be the opposite. We won’t know for a couple of days whether it lowered Trump’s numbers, but it made it much harder for him to add new supporters. If a voter thought badly of him before, they probably think even worse of him now.
A million and one Trump fans will insist, “but I don’t care about what he said.” For the purposes of getting Trump 270 electoral votes, that doesn’t matter that much. His ability to win the election depends upon adding new supporters, breaking past that low-40s threshold he’s been at most of the year. He could do this by dislodging Hillary supporters, winning over and motivating previously undecided voters, or getting supporters of Gary Johnson or Jill Stein into his pile.