Mario, the Iranian actions may be part of an even larger context. You are right to emphasize the importance of Khamene’i’s proclamation that Iran may resort to “illegal” nuclear activity, heh, as if they hadn’t already. Then there is the sudden cancellation of Ahmadi-Nezhad’s trip to the UN, which suggests to me that he doesn’t want to leave the country just now.

Why?

There are various possible answers. One is that Khamenei has taken a turn for the worse–his health is awful–and so the succession struggle is getting even hotter. Ahmadi-Nezhad might be afraid that Rafsanjani could steal a beat on him, and so A-N had better stay in town.

Another is that the recent wave of disappearances/defections has truly rocked the regime, since Asgari and the others really know a lot, and hence many Iranian plans have to be totally scrapped, and various agents have to be recalled. Some people think there has been a lot of movement by Iranian “diplomats” suddently returning to Tehran, although I haven’t gotten any official confirmation. Maybe you can.

Then there are the insistent stories I have been told for several months now, pointing to 9 April, or thereabouts, as the date for a big nuclear event. Maybe a test, maybe an announcement. Remember a couple of months ago A-N promised a major announcement? And then it was postponed? Maybe they are building up to it.

In this context, the regime might like to have some hostages. They love it anyway, as we have learned for more than twenty years. But now seems like a particularly good moment, whatever turns out to be true from the above list.

Did you see the story in U.S. News about the Iranian efforts to kidnap Americans along the Iran/Iraq border last September? We just shot back and walked away, apparently, even though we had caught an Iranian “soldier” in Iraq…that sort of fecklessness does tend to encourage hostage-taking, doesn’t it?