I believe when McCain wobbled a little on immigration earlier this year after hearing from voters on the campaign trail he should have gone all the way and said, “Look, I support a path for citizenship, and always will. Eventually, we’ll need one. But I’ve heard from voters on this issue. I’ve heard the deep distrust they have that the federal government will follow through on its commitments to enforcement. As someone who cares so deeply about integrity in government, it grieves me that there is this level of distrust and cynicism. My friends, I believe the government first–before doing anything else–has to work to heal this breach with it citizens. It has to enforce laws currently on the books and do more to secure our border and our workplaces. Only then can we move onto the comprehensive reform that this issue ultimately needs.”

This would have done two things:

1) It certainly would have kept McCain’s campaign, which had been ticking up against Giuliani, from its current swoon. Does McCain really want to potentially throw everything away on amnesty, and an an amnesty bill that almost certainly isn’t going to work? (He answer, alas, is apparently “yes.”)

2) This is a more speculative. But I believe if McCain had shifted to the above position, it would have made the Senate deal politically impossible. It would have shifted the center of gravity of the debate to the right, and made it much harder for Sen. Jon Kyl to strike his deal with Kennedy.

My guess, by the way, is that McCain is better off if the bill goes down to defeat. Then, it might fade as an issue, and he has plenty of time to recover. If it passes and is signed into law, I think the anger over of it on the right will continue and will be a significant obstacle to McCain’s winning the nomination.