Yesterday, I wondered if McCarthy was really going to get stronger in subsequent ballots, as his team was hoping. Now, we know: No.

His support hasn’t collapsed, but he’s lost a little ground since he started. For him to begin to gain again now would defy the usual physics in this kind of contest.

Meanwhile, since at the end of the day, a core of the dissenters are dead set against him becoming speaker, it’s hard to see how they are going to be shaken — every vote where he falls short isn’t an embarrassment for them, but a success.